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Introduction
As Minnesotans, we often wear our ability to withstand winter like a badge of honor. We joke about "shorts weather" when the thermometer hits 30 degrees and pride ourselves on knowing the difference between a "light dusting" and a shovel-breaking snowfall. However, even the hardiest northerners need to take notice when meteorologists issue an extreme cold watch. This isn't your garden-variety January chill; we are staring down the barrel of a significant arctic blast that promises to plunge the state into a deep freeze for days.
Starting Thursday night, a powerful system is set to drag temperatures well below zero, keeping them there for a punishing 60-hour stretch. With wind chills expected to plummet to dangerous levels—reaching anywhere from -30°F to a staggering -50°F in some areas—this weather event poses real risks to health and safety.
In this comprehensive guide, we will break down exactly what this extreme cold watch means for you, the timeline of the freeze, the science behind the drop, and, most importantly, how to keep yourself, your family, and your home safe until the mercury rises again.
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The Forecast: 60 Hours Below Zero
The upcoming cold snap is notable not just for its intensity, but for its duration. While a quick dip in temperatures is common in late January, this system is determined to overstay its welcome.
The Timeline
The transition will begin in earnest on Thursday, January 22, 2026. As the sun sets, the temperatures will drop sharply. By Thursday night, most of the state will have crossed the threshold into sub-zero territory, and we won't see positive single digits again until at least the afternoon of Saturday, January 24.
Thursday Night: The cold front arrives. Temperatures in the Twin Cities metro area will sink to near -20°F. In northern Minnesota, readings in the -30s are likely.
Friday (All Day): This will be the heart of the deep freeze. Daytime "highs" will struggle to rise above -10°F or -15°F. When you factor in the wind, it will feel significantly colder.
Friday Night into Saturday Morning: This is expected to be the coldest period. The combination of ambient air temperature and consistent winds could produce the lowest wind chill values of the season.
Saturday Afternoon: A slow recovery begins, with temperatures finally clawing their way back toward zero, though wind chills will likely remain hazardous.
Understanding the Numbers
When meteorologists talk about an extreme cold watch, they are looking at specific criteria. For much of Minnesota, this watch is triggered when wind chills are expected to reach -35°F or colder.
During this event, we are looking at ambient air temperatures that haven't been seen since the notable cold snaps of previous years. The National Weather Service (NWS) is forecasting widespread lows of -20°F to -30°F. To put that in perspective, the average low for late January in Minneapolis is usually around 7°F. We are deviating from the norm by nearly 30 degrees.
The Science Behind the Freeze: The Arctic High
Why is this happening now? The culprit is a massive, high-pressure system descending from the Canadian Arctic.
In meteorology, high pressure usually signals clear skies. In the summer, that means sunshine and warmth. In the dead of winter, however, clear skies are a double-edged sword. Clouds act like a blanket for the earth, trapping heat radiating from the ground. When a strong high-pressure system clears the clouds away at night, that heat escapes rapidly into the atmosphere, leading to radiational cooling.
Combined with a flow of air directly from the Arctic Circle—often referred to as a "lobe" of the Polar Vortex—this setup creates a perfect engine for extreme cold. The air mass moving over Minnesota has been sitting over northern Canada, cooling down over snowpack with no sunlight to warm it. Now, it is spilling south, and Minnesota is the first stop.
The Wind Chill Factor
The "feels like" temperature, or wind chill, is critical during an extreme cold watch. Your body constantly generates heat, creating a thin layer of warm air just above your skin. Wind strips this layer away. The faster the wind blows, the faster you lose body heat.
For this event, even a modest wind of 10 to 15 mph can make an air temperature of -20°F feel like -45°F. At these levels, frostbite is not a matter of hours; it is a matter of minutes.
Regional Breakdown: How Your Area Will Fare
While the entire state is under the gun, the severity will vary slightly depending on where you are located.
The Twin Cities Metro
Urban heat islands usually keep Minneapolis and St. Paul a few degrees warmer than the surrounding suburbs, but that effect will be negligible against this air mass. Expect lows around -20°F to -25°F. The wind channeling through city streets can create "canyons" of cold, making walking or waiting for the bus particularly brutal.
Northern Minnesota (The Icebox)
Areas like International Falls, Bemidji, and Ely are accustomed to the cold, but this snap will test even seasoned residents. Lows could dip into the -30s or even -40°F in isolated pockets. The extreme cold watch here is critical, as emergency response times can be slower in rural areas during severe weather.
Southern and Western Minnesota
Towns like Marshall, Pipestone, and Worthington are often more exposed to the wind due to the open prairie landscape. Forecasts for these areas indicate wind chills could hit the -40°F to -50°F range. The lack of tree cover means the wind has an unimpeded path, increasing the risk for travelers on highways like I-90.
Safety First: Surviving the Deep Freeze
An extreme cold watch is a signal to prepare. The risks associated with this weather are life-threatening if ignored. Here is a detailed guide to staying safe.
1. Frostbite and Hypothermia
At wind chills of -30°F, frostbite can set in on exposed skin in as little as 10 to 30 minutes. At -50°F, it can happen in under 5 minutes.
Signs of Frostbite: Numbness, white or grayish-yellow skin, and skin that feels unusually firm or waxy.
What to Do: Get to a warm room. Do not massage the area (this can cause tissue damage). Use warm (not hot) water to rewarm the skin.
Hypothermia: This occurs when your body loses heat faster than it can produce it. Symptoms include shivering, confusion, fumbling hands, memory loss, and slurred speech. This is a medical emergency—call 911 immediately.
2. Layering is Key
If you must go outside, dress like an onion.
Base Layer: Moisture-wicking material (synthetic or wool). Avoid cotton, which holds moisture against your skin and makes you colder.
Middle Layer: Insulation. Fleece, wool, or down are excellent choices to trap body heat.
Outer Layer: A windproof and waterproof shell to block the arctic breeze.
Extremities: Wear a hat (40% of body heat is lost through the head), a scarf or face mask to cover the nose and mouth, and heavy mittens (mittens are warmer than gloves because fingers share warmth).
3. Home Safety
Your house is your fortress against the cold, but it needs protection too.
Prevent Frozen Pipes: Leave cabinet doors under sinks open to allow warm air to circulate around pipes. Let cold water drip from the faucet served by exposed pipes.
Thermostat: Keep your thermostat set to the same temperature both during the day and at night. This is not the time to try and save money on the heating bill.
Carbon Monoxide: With furnaces working overtime and people potentially using space heaters or fireplaces, the risk of CO poisoning increases. Ensure your detectors are working. Never use a generator, grill, or camp stove indoors.
4. Vehicle Preparedness
A breakdown in -20°F weather can turn deadly fast.
Gas Tank: Keep it at least half full. This prevents the fuel line from freezing and allows you to run the engine for heat if you get stuck.
Survival Kit: Your trunk should contain a blanket, jumper cables, a flashlight, a small shovel, non-perishable snacks, and extra warm clothes (boots, hat, gloves).
Battery: Cold weather saps battery power. If your battery is old, it might not start on Friday morning.
Impact on Daily Life and Events
The timing of this extreme cold watch collides with typical daily activities and beloved winter traditions.
Schools and Commutes
School districts across Minnesota have strict protocols regarding cold. When wind chills approach -35°F, it becomes dangerous for children to wait at bus stops. Parents should anticipate potential delays or cancellations for Friday, January 23.
For commuters, expect cars to struggle to start and roads to be slick. Black ice is harder to treat in extreme cold because road salt becomes less effective below 15°F. At -20°F, it is virtually useless.
The "Bold North" Events
Ironically, this cold snap arrives just as the St. Paul Winter Carnival and the U.S. Pond Hockey Championships are set to kick off.
St. Paul Winter Carnival: Known as the "Coolest Celebration on Earth," the carnival often embraces the cold. However, organizers may modify schedules for outdoor parades or ice carving events to ensure spectator safety.
Pond Hockey: Taking place on Lake Nokomis, this event is no stranger to chill. However, players and fans will need to take extra precautions. In 2019 and previous years, extreme cold forced delays. If you plan to attend, heavy-duty gear is non-negotiable.
Historical Context: How Does This Compare?
Is this the coldest it has ever been? Not quite, but it is significant.
1996: The state record for cold was set in Tower, MN, on February 2, 1996, at a bone-chilling -60°F. We likely won't hit that ambient temperature this week.
2019: Many Minnesotans remember the "Polar Vortex" of late January 2019, where the Twin Cities shut down as highs stayed below zero for days and lows hit -28°F. This week's event is comparable in intensity, though perhaps slightly shorter in duration.
1888: On January 21, 1888, the Twin Cities recorded a low of -41°F. We are fortunate that we aren't challenging that record this time around.
Assistant State Climatologist Peter Boulay has noted that while we might not break all-time records, this is a "top-tier" cold event for the last decade. It serves as a reminder that despite recent mild winters, Minnesota is still capable of producing formidable arctic weather.
Looking Ahead: When Will It End?
The good news is that this extreme cold watch has a definite expiration date. The high-pressure system is progressive, meaning it will move off to the east relatively quickly.
By Sunday, January 25, winds will shift to the south/southwest, bringing warmer air back into the region. High temperatures are expected to climb back into the teens or even the 20s. While that might still sound cold to an outsider, for a Minnesotan coming off a -20°F stretch, 20°F feels like a tropical heatwave.
Long-range forecasts suggest a return to more average January temperatures (highs in the 20s) for the remainder of the month, though meteorologists are watching for another potential, albeit weaker, cold shot in early February.
Conclusion
This extreme cold watch is a serious weather event, but it is one that Minnesotans are well-equipped to handle. The key is preparation and respect for the elements. 60 hours below zero is a long time, but by taking the right precautions—layering up, preparing your home, and checking on vulnerable neighbors—we can all get through it safely.
So, plug in your car, find your warmest wool socks, and hunker down. This is the kind of weather that builds character (and gives us bragging rights for the rest of the year). Stay warm, Minnesota!
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Q: What is the difference between an Extreme Cold Watch and a Warning? A: An Extreme Cold Watch is issued when dangerous cold conditions are possible within the next 24 to 48 hours. An Extreme Cold Warning is issued when these life-threatening conditions are imminent or already occurring. Both require immediate preparation.
Q: At what temperature do schools typically close in Minnesota? A: There is no statewide rule, but many districts use a threshold of -35°F wind chill to cancel school or delay start times. This is based on the time it takes for frostbite to occur on exposed skin.
Q: Can I walk my dog during an extreme cold watch? A: You should limit your pet's time outdoors significantly. If it's too cold for you, it's too cold for them. For necessary bathroom breaks, consider dog booties to protect paws from ice and salt, and keep trips very short.
Q: Will my car start in -20°F weather? A: It depends on the health of your battery. At -20°F, a battery loses about 50% of its power, and the engine oil becomes thick, making it harder to turn over. Using a block heater or parking in a garage helps significantly.
Q: How long does it take to get frostbite in this weather? A: With wind chills in the -30°F to -50°F range, frostbite can occur on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes. It is vital to cover all skin when going outside.
Q: What should I keep in my car during this cold snap? A: An emergency kit is essential. Include a blanket, extra hats and mittens, a flashlight, jumper cables, a small shovel, sand or kitty litter for traction, and non-perishable food like granola bars.
Q: When is the cold snap expected to end? A: Temperatures are expected to remain below zero for about 60 hours, starting Thursday night. We should see a return to "positive" temperatures by Saturday afternoon or Sunday morning.
References
Star Tribune. "Cold snap will keep temperature below zero for 60 hours starting Thursday night." Available at: Startribune.com
FOX 9 Minneapolis-St. Paul. "MN weather: Extreme cold watch starts Thursday night." Available at: Fox9.com
MPR News. "Yes, it’s cold but the coldest air of winter arrives late this week." Available at: Mprnews.org
National Weather Service. "Wind Chill Chart and Safety Info." Available at: Weather.gov
Minnesota Department of Public Safety. "Winter Safety Checklist." Available at: Dps.mn.gov
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